Wednesday 7 November 2007

Positives

One of the few banks that can serve big business in the UK. (Bigger UK competitors are HSBC and RBS.) A toll keeper.

S&P AA rating. Moody’s AA1 rating. Both with stable outlook.

9th largest bank in world by market capitalisation.

Scope for improving profits through cost cutting and IT efficiency improvement.

Seems to be more prudent in lending in the current house price inflation and high borrowing climate.

Innovative, e.g. Barclays Global Investors has become the biggest index trackers in the world.

Good growth in past few year likely to continue into the future. Quotes from John Varley's Oct 07 presentation:
1 We have consistently talked about our expectation that, through time, both BarCap and BGI will be capable of generating compound profit growth of between 15% and 20%. Nothing that’s happened over the course of the last months causes us to change that growth outlook for the future.
2 The privatisation of welfare provision; wealth generation and wealth transfer; explosive growth in demand for financial products in emerging markets; significant growth in the utilisation of credit cards for payments and borrowing; the securitisation of financing; the derivativisation of risk management; and the demands placed on the capital markets to finance infrastructure development throughout the developed and developing world.
3 We are investing heavily in our retail and commercial banking businesses in Western Europe – Italy, Spain and Portugal – and in Emerging Markets – India, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Some 180 branches were opened outside the United Kingdom during the first half of this year (mostly in Emerging Markets), and we expect that this number will have risen to over 350 by year end. We are confident of achieving strong growth rates – with our Western Europe business growing at an emerging market rate during the first half of this year, with profit up 17% and, in the Emerging Markets business itself, by 25%.

Good and growing yield
1 Barclays has not cut its dividend since 1992 (that’s as far back as Sharescope shows) and has increased its dividend every year since 1993 (dividend history in pence from 1993 to 2006 = 3.79, 5.25, 6.50, 7.88, 9.25, 10.75, 12.50, 14.5, 16.63, 18.38, 20.50, 24.00, 26.60, 31.00).

Buying back own shares at big “profit” in Sep / Nov 07 compared to sales of its shares in Aug 07.
1 Sold £2.5bn worth of shares @ £7.20 each to China Development Bank and Tamasek Holdings in August 2007.
2 Buying back those shares from the market at prices well below that thus enhancing shareholder value.

Directors bought shares at higher market prices recently.
02-Nov-07 Frederik Seegers 551.00p 72,000 £396,720
22-Oct-07 Sir Nigel Rudd 584.50p 16,500 £96,442
28-Sep-07 Frederik Seegers 594.00p 50,000 £297,000
03-Aug-07 Leigh Clifford 689.50p 6,000 £41,370
02-Aug-07 John S Varley 682.00p 70,000 £477,400
02-Aug-07 Frederik Seegers 680.00p 140,000 £952,000
02-Aug-07 Sir Nigel Rudd 679.50p 15,000 £101,925
02-Aug-07 Chris Lucas 682.00p 35,000 £238,700
02-Aug-07 Andrew Likierman 685.00p 1,000 £6,850
02-Aug-07 Gary Hoffman 680.00p 70,000 £476,000
02-Aug-07 Robert E Diamond Jr 674.00p 140,000 £943,599
02-Aug-07 Fulvio Conti 682.00p 6,000 £40,920

Emphasis on risk management, including diversification of income sources and markets. Quotes from John Varley's Oct 07 presentation:
1 Over the course of the last 18 months, three in every four new Barclaycards issued to customers have been issued to customers outside the United Kingdom
2 Self evidently, how well we manage risk dictates at what pace (and sometimes whether) we grow.
3 Emerging markets carry their own risks. But we understand these risks well and we have built a team under Frits which has very significant experience in developing these businesses.
4 There are many in this room who will look to commercial banking businesses in the United Kingdom over the course of the last 30 years as the sources of cyclical value destruction. But in Barclays Business Banking, we have a good example of where the drum beat has to be one of strong risk adjusted growth. There has been a massive progress in the quality of risk management in this area of our business. What I want here, as elsewhere, is safe growth. And that means being prepared to take a point of view. Property and construction as a percentage of our corporate loan book in the United Kingdom represents 14%. We have studiously avoided risk concentration here.
5 We have spread our business risk by consciously striving to generate a more diverse income base. As a result, the proportion of non-interest income has risen to 60% of our total income up from 45% in 2003

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